High variance
A small miner can wait a very long time for a successful block even if the long-run expected value is positive.
Mining converts specialized hardware, electricity and operational risk into probabilistic Bitcoin revenue. The subsidy is known; your share and your costs are not.
The protocol currently pays a 3.125 BTC block subsidy plus transaction fees to the miner of a valid block. Your actual revenue depends on your share of hash power, pool rules and network conditions.
Bitcoin retargets proof-of-work difficulty every 2,016 blocks to keep block production near the protocol target. If network competition changes, the same hardware can produce a different expected share of rewards.
Then subtract electricity, hardware amortization, pool/hosting costs, maintenance and downtime. Market price changes the fiat result but does not change the amount of electricity already consumed.
Bitcoin developer documentation distinguishes solo mining from pooled mining. Solo miners receive the full block reward when they find a block but face much higher payout variance; pools aggregate work and distribute smaller, more frequent payouts under their own rules.
A small miner can wait a very long time for a successful block even if the long-run expected value is positive.
Pool fees, payout method, minimums and counterparty risk become part of the economics.
Run lower BTC price, higher difficulty and higher power-cost scenarios before treating an estimate as a business case.
Use profit calculator →The sources below describe current subsidy, mining mechanics and difficulty. They do not estimate your local electricity price or profitability.
Different paths create value in different ways. Keep payment for work, rewards, mining and scam screening separate.